Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

55.23 – 155.12

22%78%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

57 – 219

Prediction correct · off by 32.8 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 217.1 ±13.9

7503Radicubs

Season APEX 125.2Event APEX 41.16Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3676RedShift Robotics

Season APEX 66.3Event APEX 0.29Rank 18Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7534Dragonflies

Season APEX 25.6Event APEX 13.78Rank 24Record 2-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 311.9 ±11.7

9786MHS Wolfpack Team 9786

Season APEX 39.8Event APEX 3.36Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2714♨️ BBQ ♨️

Season APEX 134.9Event APEX 122.04Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2728♨️ TACO ♨️

Season APEX 137.2Event APEX 29.72Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7503, 3676, 7534

/ 100 compat

Projected

55.2 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 7503, 3676, 7534

Auto

15.2 29%

Teleop

15.6 29%

Endgame

22.3 42%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9786, 2714, 2728

/ 100 compat

Projected

155.1 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 9786, 2714, 2728

Auto

26.7 18%

Teleop

80.2 54%

Endgame

41.0 28%

Strengths

· 2714 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.85 · Blue 2.06

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score55.2pts

Blue projected score155.1pts

Red win probability22%

Event bonus sample126alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -99.9
Score range: 35–175
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 276 vs event baseline 113.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

217.1Season APEX311.9

15.2Auto26.7

15.6Teleop80.2

22.3Endgame41

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	29
teleop	24	134
endgame	10	56
foul	10	0
total	57	219

Result

Final score

57 – 219

Prediction correct · off by 32.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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