Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

244.54 – 208.11

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

111 – 168

Prediction missed · off by 86.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 406.2 ±10.5

4076Texan Robotics

Season APEX 42.2Event APEX 8.52Rank 20Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2728♨️ TACO ♨️

Season APEX 137.2Event APEX 142.13Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8858Beast from the East

Season APEX 226.8Event APEX 93.89Rank 3Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 581.4 ±9.3

4206Robo Vikes

Season APEX 201.8Event APEX 61.5Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3310Black Hawk Robotics

Season APEX 137.7Event APEX 30.18Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3005RoboChargers

Season APEX 241.9Event APEX 116.43Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4076, 2728, 8858

/ 100 compat

Projected

244.5 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4076, 2728, 8858

Auto

41.7 17%

Teleop

137.2 58%

Endgame

59.4 25%

Strengths

· 2728 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4206, 3310, 3005

/ 100 compat

Projected

208.1 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 4206, 3310, 3005

Auto

44.2 22%

Teleop

112.4 55%

Endgame

48.4 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.78 · Blue 1.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score244.5pts

Blue projected score208.1pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample126alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 36.4
Score range: 182–271
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 279 vs event baseline 144.8.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

406.2Season APEX581.4

41.7Auto44.2

137.2Teleop112.4

59.4Endgame48.4

65Consistency61

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	38
teleop	71	98
endgame	11	32
foul	0	0
total	111	168

Result

Final score

111 – 168

Prediction missed · off by 86.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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