Final · Finals 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

273.3 – 298.47

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

360 – 276

Prediction missed · off by 54.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 330.5 ±10.4

2714♨️ BBQ ♨️

Season APEX 134.9Event APEX 104.16Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2728♨️ TACO ♨️

Season APEX 137.2Event APEX 138.72Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10032Singularity

Season APEX 58.4Event APEX 30.42Rank 15Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 563.6 ±9.3

3005RoboChargers

Season APEX 241.9Event APEX 117.14Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4153Project Y

Season APEX 67.8Event APEX 5.55Rank 16Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

148Robowranglers

Season APEX 253.9Event APEX 175.78Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2714, 2728, 10032

/ 100 compat

Projected

273.3 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 2714, 2728, 10032

Auto

39.3 15%

Teleop

158.7 59%

Endgame

69.5 26%

Strengths

· 2728 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3005, 4153, 148

/ 100 compat

Projected

298.5 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 3005, 4153, 148

Auto

52.2 18%

Teleop

179.5 61%

Endgame

61.7 21%

Strengths

· 148 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.27 · Blue 1.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score273.3pts

Blue projected score298.5pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample126alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -25.2
Score range: 247–324
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 636 vs event baseline 142.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

330.5Season APEX563.6

39.3Auto52.2

158.7Teleop179.5

69.5Endgame61.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	56	39
teleop	212	134
endgame	87	88
foul	5	15
total	360	276

Result

Final score

360 – 276

Prediction missed · off by 54.6 pts

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