Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

499.02 – 228.22

97%3%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

313 – 190

Prediction correct · off by 112.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 702.3 ±9.3

9128ITKAN Robotics

Season APEX 344.8Event APEX 243.74Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9492LadyTalons

Season APEX 57.8Event APEX 20.99Rank 21Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10340ITKAN Girls

A+

Season APEX 299.7Event APEX 234.29Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 441.6 ±10.5

9289Vikings

Season APEX 48.5Event APEX 17.15Rank 31Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3005RoboChargers

Season APEX 241.9Event APEX 107.94Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7506WILDCARDS

Season APEX 151.2Event APEX 103.13Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9128, 9492, 10340

/ 100 compat

Projected

499 pts

~2.7 RP (district)

Teams: 9128, 9492, 10340

Auto

106.2 22%

Teleop

302.8 62%

Endgame

82.1 17%

Strengths

· 9128 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9289, 3005, 7506

/ 100 compat

Projected

228.2 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 9289, 3005, 7506

Auto

38.8 17%

Teleop

119.4 53%

Endgame

65.7 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.67 · Blue 0.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score499pts

Blue projected score228.2pts

Red win probability97%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 270.8
Score range: 193–534
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 503 vs event baseline 196.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

702.3Season APEX441.6

106.2Auto38.8

302.8Teleop119.4

82.1Endgame65.7

0Consistency40

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	86	42
teleop	170	53
endgame	52	90
foul	5	5
total	313	190

Result

Final score

313 – 190

Prediction correct · off by 112.1 pts

Match videos

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