Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

118.1 – 141.62

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

168 – 128

Prediction missed · off by 31.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 330.8 ±11.7

4717Westerner Robotics

Season APEX 53.3Event APEX 9.16Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5431Titan Robotics

Season APEX 50.7Event APEX 27.84Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8858Beast from the East

Season APEX 226.8Event APEX 81.1Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 427.7 ±10.5

6526Cyber Rangers

Season APEX 52.4Event APEX 26.36Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1745The P-51 Mustangs

Season APEX 104Event APEX 62.93Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8749Farmersville Robotics

Season APEX 271.3Event APEX 52.33Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4717, 5431, 8858

/ 100 compat

Projected

118.1 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 4717, 5431, 8858

Auto

22.8 20%

Teleop

58.9 52%

Endgame

32.1 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6526, 1745, 8749

/ 100 compat

Projected

141.6 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 6526, 1745, 8749

Auto

23.2 16%

Teleop

83.1 59%

Endgame

35.5 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.51 · Blue 1.78

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score118.1pts

Blue projected score141.6pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -23.5
Score range: 82–178
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 296 vs event baseline 197.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

330.8Season APEX427.7

22.8Auto23.2

58.9Teleop83.1

32.1Endgame35.5

40Consistency43

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	23
teleop	61	58
endgame	36	42
foul	30	5
total	168	128

Result

Final score

168 – 128

Prediction missed · off by 31.8 pts

Match videos

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