Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

72.32 – 194.78

18%82%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

32 – 102

Prediction correct · off by 66.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 176.9 ±12.1

4641TALON Inc.

Season APEX 61.8Event APEX 32.76Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5790Proto-Titans

Season APEX 62.5Event APEX 20.41Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5682Equus Engineering

Season APEX 52.6Event APEX 19.15Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 281.5 ±12.2

9034The Space Dolphins

Season APEX 40.6Event APEX 18.31Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7119Sunset RoboBison

Season APEX 115.7Event APEX 89.5Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7503Radicubs

Season APEX 125.2Event APEX 86.97Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4641, 5790, 5682

/ 100 compat

Projected

72.3 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 4641, 5790, 5682

Auto

16.8 23%

Teleop

27.8 39%

Endgame

27.6 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9034, 7119, 7503

/ 100 compat

Projected

194.8 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 9034, 7119, 7503

Auto

31.2 17%

Teleop

101.9 55%

Endgame

51.7 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.96 · Blue 2.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score72.3pts

Blue projected score194.8pts

Red win probability18%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -122.5
Score range: 36–231
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 134 vs event baseline 199.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

176.9Season APEX281.5

16.8Auto31.2

27.8Teleop101.9

27.6Endgame51.7

8Consistency6

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	26
teleop	13	56
endgame	0	20
foul	5	0
total	32	102

Result

Final score

32 – 102

Prediction correct · off by 66.6 pts

Match videos

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