Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

269.58 – 128.53

85%15%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

401 – 187

Prediction correct · off by 94.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 510 ±9.9

2582PantherBots

Season APEX 211Event APEX 165.13Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1296Full Metal Jackets

Season APEX 262.7Event APEX 111.03Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9105TechnoTalons

Season APEX 36.3Event APEX -6.58Rank 30Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 427.7 ±10.5

6526Cyber Rangers

Season APEX 52.4Event APEX 21.76Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1745The P-51 Mustangs

Season APEX 104Event APEX 59.57Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8749Farmersville Robotics

Season APEX 271.3Event APEX 47.2Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2582, 1296, 9105

/ 100 compat

Projected

269.6 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 2582, 1296, 9105

Auto

50.1 19%

Teleop

164.3 61%

Endgame

56.1 21%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6526, 1745, 8749

/ 100 compat

Projected

128.5 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 6526, 1745, 8749

Auto

24.1 19%

Teleop

76.1 59%

Endgame

28.7 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.37 · Blue 0.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score269.6pts

Blue projected score128.5pts

Red win probability85%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 141
Score range: 93–306
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 588 vs event baseline 197.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

510Season APEX427.7

50.1Auto24.1

164.3Teleop76.1

56.1Endgame28.7

13Consistency38

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	19
teleop	258	108
endgame	97	60
foul	0	0
total	401	187

Result

Final score

401 – 187

Prediction correct · off by 94.9 pts

Match videos

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