Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

471.49 – 82.36

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

614 – 57

Prediction correct · off by 83.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 702.3 ±9.3

9128ITKAN Robotics

Season APEX 344.8Event APEX 233.42Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9492LadyTalons

Season APEX 57.8Event APEX 12.04Rank 21Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10340ITKAN Girls

A+

Season APEX 299.7Event APEX 226.03Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 176.9 ±12.1

4641TALON Inc.

Season APEX 61.8Event APEX 35.85Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5790Proto-Titans

Season APEX 62.5Event APEX 24.55Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5682Equus Engineering

Season APEX 52.6Event APEX 21.96Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9128, 9492, 10340

/ 100 compat

Projected

471.5 pts

~2.7 RP (district)

Teams: 9128, 9492, 10340

Auto

101.5 22%

Teleop

287.8 62%

Endgame

72.2 16%

Strengths

· 9128 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4641, 5790, 5682

/ 100 compat

Projected

82.4 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 4641, 5790, 5682

Auto

19.0 23%

Teleop

30.2 37%

Endgame

32.5 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.7 · Blue 0.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score471.5pts

Blue projected score82.4pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 389.1
Score range: 47–506
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 671 vs event baseline 194.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

702.3Season APEX176.9

101.5Auto19

287.8Teleop30.2

72.2Endgame32.5

15Consistency7

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	128	11
teleop	360	29
endgame	121	17
foul	5	0
total	614	57

Result

Final score

614 – 57

Prediction correct · off by 83.9 pts

Match videos

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