Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
311.11 – 326.3
45%55%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
305 – 310
Prediction correct · off by 11.2 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 510 ±9.9
Season APEX 211Event APEX 177.22Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 262.7Event APEX 126.17Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 36.3Event APEX 7.72Rank 30Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 502.1 ±9.3
Season APEX 222.2Event APEX 173.13Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 61.8Event APEX 9.61Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 218.1Event APEX 143.56Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 2582, 1296, 9105
79
/ 100 compatProjected
311.1 pts
~1.6 RP (district)
Teams: 2582, 1296, 9105
Auto
50.1 16%
Teleop
190.5 61%
Endgame
70.9 23%
Strengths
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 58%
Supercharged: 6%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 2848, 5411, 6773
81
/ 100 compatProjected
326.3 pts
~1.7 RP (district)
Teams: 2848, 5411, 6773
Auto
49.4 16%
Teleop
180.1 57%
Endgame
86.3 27%
Strengths
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 58%
Supercharged: 6%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.57 · Blue 1.72
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score311.1pts
Blue projected score326.3pts
Red win probability45%
Event bonus sample154alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 58%, blue 55%
Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 5%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -15.2
- Score range
- 274–363
- Upset likelihood
- 45%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Match context
Upset
Close match
High scoring
Playoff
Combined score 615 vs event baseline 203.8.
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
510Season APEX502.1
50.1Auto49.4
190.5Teleop180.1
70.9Endgame86.3
0Consistency16
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 63 | 54 |
| teleop | 156 | 157 |
| endgame | 86 | 94 |
| foul | 0 | 5 |
| total | 305 | 310 |
Result
Final score
305 – 310
Prediction correct · off by 11.2 pts
Match videos
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