Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

340.25 – 215.27

83%17%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

235 – 168

Prediction correct · off by 76.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 502.1 ±9.3

2848Rangers

Season APEX 222.2Event APEX 177.64Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5411RoboTalons

Season APEX 61.8Event APEX 14.53Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6773Max Throttle Mavericks

Season APEX 218.1Event APEX 148.08Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 441.6 ±10.5

9289Vikings

Season APEX 48.5Event APEX 12.22Rank 31Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3005RoboChargers

Season APEX 241.9Event APEX 103.13Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7506WILDCARDS

Season APEX 151.2Event APEX 99.92Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2848, 5411, 6773

/ 100 compat

Projected

340.3 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 2848, 5411, 6773

Auto

51.6 16%

Teleop

193.1 58%

Endgame

86.4 26%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9289, 3005, 7506

/ 100 compat

Projected

215.3 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 9289, 3005, 7506

Auto

36.8 18%

Teleop

105.7 51%

Endgame

65.5 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.28 · Blue 0.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score340.3pts

Blue projected score215.3pts

Red win probability83%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 125
Score range: 178–377
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 403 vs event baseline 203.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

502.1Season APEX441.6

51.6Auto36.8

193.1Teleop105.7

86.4Endgame65.5

11Consistency51

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	36
teleop	96	86
endgame	84	36
foul	20	10
total	235	168

Result

Final score

235 – 168

Prediction correct · off by 76.3 pts

Match videos

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