Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
467.58 – 313.34
87%13%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
621 – 294
Prediction correct · off by 86.4 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 702.3 ±9.3
Season APEX 344.8Event APEX 234.18Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 57.8Event APEX 10.31Rank 21Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 299.7Event APEX 223.09Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 510 ±9.9
Season APEX 211Event APEX 179.09Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 262.7Event APEX 126.21Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 36.3Event APEX 8.04Rank 30Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 9128, 9492, 10340
79
/ 100 compatProjected
467.6 pts
~2.5 RP (district)
Teams: 9128, 9492, 10340
Auto
102.5 22%
Teleop
281.2 61%
Endgame
76.4 17%
Strengths
- · 9128 anchors offense
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 61%
Supercharged: 11%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 2582, 1296, 9105
79
/ 100 compatProjected
313.3 pts
~0.9 RP (district)
Teams: 2582, 1296, 9105
Auto
51.4 16%
Teleop
195.8 62%
Endgame
67.1 21%
Strengths
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 61%
Supercharged: 11%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.48 · Blue 0.92
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score467.6pts
Blue projected score313.3pts
Red win probability87%
Event bonus sample154alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 61%, blue 58%
Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 6%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 154.2
- Score range
- 277–504
- Upset likelihood
- 13%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
702.3Season APEX510
102.5Auto51.4
281.2Teleop195.8
76.4Endgame67.1
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 154 | 43 |
| teleop | 338 | 153 |
| endgame | 104 | 93 |
| foul | 25 | 5 |
| total | 621 | 294 |
Result
Final score
621 – 294
Prediction correct · off by 86.4 pts
Match videos
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