Qualification · Qualification 9
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
104.71 – 156.01
35%65%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
223 – 211
Prediction missed · off by 86.6 points
Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 358.1 ±12.4
Season APEX 38Event APEX 15.29Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 262.7Event APEX 80.98Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 57.4Event APEX 8.44Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 294.2 ±12.2
Season APEX 53.3Event APEX 67.71Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 125.2Event APEX 15.29Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 115.7Event APEX 73.01Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 6171, 1296, 3282
52
/ 100 compatProjected
104.7 pts
~1.4 RP (district)
Teams: 6171, 1296, 3282
Auto
16.3 15%
Teleop
66.2 61%
Endgame
25.9 24%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 67%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 4717, 7503, 7119
62
/ 100 compatProjected
156 pts
~2.0 RP (district)
Teams: 4717, 7503, 7119
Auto
46.4 29%
Teleop
98.0 62%
Endgame
14.2 9%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
RP bonus probability
Energized: 67%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.41 · Blue 2.04
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score104.7pts
Blue projected score156pts
Red win probability35%
Event bonus sample154alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 67%, blue 63%
Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 8%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -51.3
- Score range
- 75–186
- Upset likelihood
- 35%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
358.1Season APEX294.2
16.3Auto46.4
66.2Teleop98
25.9Endgame14.2
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 50 | 25 |
| teleop | 136 | 114 |
| endgame | 37 | 67 |
| foul | 0 | 5 |
| total | 223 | 211 |
Result
Final score
223 – 211
Prediction missed · off by 86.6 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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