Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

118.14 – 182.53

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

193 – 300

Prediction correct · off by 96.2 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 332.5 ±10.5

2848Rangers

Season APEX 222.2Event APEX 81.43Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5411RoboTalons

Season APEX 61.8Event APEX 19.85Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9289Vikings

Season APEX 48.5Event APEX 16.86Rank 31Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 482 ±10.7

8858Beast from the East

Season APEX 226.8Event APEX 34.52Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7091KnightOwls

Season APEX 37.1Event APEX 52.87Rank 28Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6773Max Throttle Mavericks

Season APEX 218.1Event APEX 95.14Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2848, 5411, 9289

/ 100 compat

Projected

118.1 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 2848, 5411, 9289

Auto

23.0 19%

Teleop

74.3 63%

Endgame

21.4 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8858, 7091, 6773

/ 100 compat

Projected

182.5 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 8858, 7091, 6773

Auto

29.9 16%

Teleop

121.1 65%

Endgame

35.8 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.15 · Blue 2.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score118.1pts

Blue projected score182.5pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -64.4
Score range: 90–211
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 493 vs event baseline 157.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

332.5Season APEX482

23Auto29.9

74.3Teleop121.1

21.4Endgame35.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	45
teleop	94	174
endgame	57	76
foul	0	5
total	193	300

Result

Final score

193 – 300

Prediction correct · off by 96.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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