Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

78.76 – 145.61

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

44 – 140

Prediction correct · off by 20.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 188.6 ±12.7

7121Keller Fusion Robotics

Season APEX 22.1Event APEX -2.73Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5790Proto-Titans

Season APEX 62.5Event APEX 17.93Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1745The P-51 Mustangs

Season APEX 104Event APEX 63.56Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 265.6 ±11.6

5682Equus Engineering

Season APEX 52.6Event APEX 17.1Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7506WILDCARDS

Season APEX 151.2Event APEX 97.3Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4641TALON Inc.

Season APEX 61.8Event APEX 31.21Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7121, 5790, 1745

/ 100 compat

Projected

78.8 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 7121, 5790, 1745

Auto

15.9 22%

Teleop

37.2 52%

Endgame

18.1 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5682, 7506, 4641

/ 100 compat

Projected

145.6 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5682, 7506, 4641

Auto

20.8 14%

Teleop

82.1 57%

Endgame

41.9 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.21 · Blue 2.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score78.8pts

Blue projected score145.6pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -66.9
Score range: 41–184
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 184 vs event baseline 211.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

188.6Season APEX265.6

15.9Auto20.8

37.2Teleop82.1

18.1Endgame41.9

15Consistency34

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	24
teleop	9	80
endgame	14	36
foul	5	0
total	44	140

Result

Final score

44 – 140

Prediction correct · off by 20.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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