Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

147.36 – 123.67

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

170 – 147

Prediction correct · off by 23 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 346.6 ±11.7

1296Full Metal Jackets

Season APEX 262.7Event APEX 110.94Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7121Keller Fusion Robotics

Season APEX 22.1Event APEX -2.27Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4641TALON Inc.

Season APEX 61.8Event APEX 38.69Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 305.4 ±12.4

6171⚛ Chain Reaction ⚛

Season APEX 38Event APEX 27.88Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9034The Space Dolphins

Season APEX 40.6Event APEX 17.78Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8858Beast from the East

Season APEX 226.8Event APEX 78.01Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1296, 7121, 4641

/ 100 compat

Projected

147.4 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 1296, 7121, 4641

Auto

40.3 28%

Teleop

78.3 54%

Endgame

26.3 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6171, 9034, 8858

/ 100 compat

Projected

123.7 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 6171, 9034, 8858

Auto

24.9 21%

Teleop

57.4 48%

Endgame

36.6 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.76 · Blue 1.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score147.4pts

Blue projected score123.7pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 23.7
Score range: 89–182
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 317 vs event baseline 194.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

346.6Season APEX305.4

40.3Auto24.9

78.3Teleop57.4

26.3Endgame36.6

7Consistency45

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	35
teleop	91	65
endgame	64	27
foul	0	20
total	170	147

Result

Final score

170 – 147

Prediction correct · off by 23 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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