Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

334.87 – 350.64

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

411 – 348

Prediction missed · off by 39.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 511.2 ±11.1

9128ITKAN Robotics

Season APEX 344.8Event APEX 218.71Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5431Titan Robotics

Season APEX 50.7Event APEX 21.36Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7119Sunset RoboBison

Season APEX 115.7Event APEX 94.8Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 568.1 ±9.9

2848Rangers

Season APEX 222.2Event APEX 166.18Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1745The P-51 Mustangs

Season APEX 104Event APEX 72.67Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3005RoboChargers

Season APEX 241.9Event APEX 111.79Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9128, 5431, 7119

/ 100 compat

Projected

334.9 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 9128, 5431, 7119

Auto

74.1 23%

Teleop

185.9 57%

Endgame

66.4 20%

Strengths

· 9128 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2848, 1745, 3005

/ 100 compat

Projected

350.6 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 2848, 1745, 3005

Auto

51.3 15%

Teleop

201.6 58%

Endgame

95.6 27%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.67 · Blue 1.84

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score334.9pts

Blue projected score350.6pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -15.8
Score range: 301–385
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 759 vs event baseline 190.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

511.2Season APEX568.1

74.1Auto51.3

185.9Teleop201.6

66.4Endgame95.6

39Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	85	52
teleop	237	195
endgame	79	66
foul	10	35
total	411	348

Result

Final score

411 – 348

Prediction missed · off by 39.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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