Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

255.46 – 413.53

12%88%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

263 – 406

Prediction correct · off by 7.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 431.1 ±11.2

7506WILDCARDS

Season APEX 151.2Event APEX 109.99Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6171⚛ Chain Reaction ⚛

Season APEX 38Event APEX 28.38Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3005RoboChargers

Season APEX 241.9Event APEX 117.09Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 562.5 ±10.7

10340ITKAN Girls

A+

Season APEX 299.7Event APEX 218.2Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2848Rangers

Season APEX 222.2Event APEX 167.88Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9034The Space Dolphins

Season APEX 40.6Event APEX 27.45Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7506, 6171, 3005

/ 100 compat

Projected

255.5 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 7506, 6171, 3005

Auto

39.3 16%

Teleop

135.3 54%

Endgame

78.2 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10340, 2848, 9034

/ 100 compat

Projected

413.5 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 10340, 2848, 9034

Auto

67.8 16%

Teleop

272.8 66%

Endgame

71.6 17%

Strengths

· 10340 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.02 · Blue 2.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score255.5pts

Blue projected score413.5pts

Red win probability12%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 70%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -158.1
Score range: 220–449
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 669 vs event baseline 193.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

431.1Season APEX562.5

39.3Auto67.8

135.3Teleop272.8

78.2Endgame71.6

12Consistency24

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	53
teleop	148	269
endgame	91	79
foul	5	5
total	263	406

Result

Final score

263 – 406

Prediction correct · off by 7.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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