Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

222.11 – 85.75

85%15%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

215 – 87

Prediction correct · off by 4.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 330.7 ±14.4

1745The P-51 Mustangs

Season APEX 104Event APEX 70.58Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7506WILDCARDS

Season APEX 151.2Event APEX 114.53Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8408Kiss Kats

Season APEX 75.5Event APEX 37Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 163.6 ±12.7

9289Vikings

Season APEX 48.5Event APEX 30.7Rank 31Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4641TALON Inc.

Season APEX 61.8Event APEX 35Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4717Westerner Robotics

Season APEX 53.3Event APEX 20.05Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1745, 7506, 8408

/ 100 compat

Projected

222.1 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 1745, 7506, 8408

Auto

33.8 15%

Teleop

140.0 63%

Endgame

49.6 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9289, 4641, 4717

/ 100 compat

Projected

85.8 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 9289, 4641, 4717

Auto

23.2 26%

Teleop

39.0 44%

Endgame

26.0 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.39 · Blue 0.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score222.1pts

Blue projected score85.8pts

Red win probability85%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 136.4
Score range: 51–257
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 302 vs event baseline 196.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

330.7Season APEX163.6

33.8Auto23.2

140Teleop39

49.6Endgame26

0Consistency32

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	20
teleop	141	35
endgame	52	32
foul	0	0
total	215	87

Result

Final score

215 – 87

Prediction correct · off by 4.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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