Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

174.42 – 379.7

7%93%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

155 – 442

Prediction correct · off by 40.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 270.8 ±11

4641TALON Inc.

Season APEX 61.8Event APEX 38.26Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7506WILDCARDS

Season APEX 151.2Event APEX 118.9Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9492LadyTalons

Season APEX 57.8Event APEX 17.26Rank 21Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 540.6 ±10.5

10340ITKAN Girls

A+

Season APEX 299.7Event APEX 217.57Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7503Radicubs

Season APEX 125.2Event APEX 68.25Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7119Sunset RoboBison

Season APEX 115.7Event APEX 93.88Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4641, 7506, 9492

/ 100 compat

Projected

174.4 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4641, 7506, 9492

Auto

30.3 19%

Teleop

99.1 61%

Endgame

32.9 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10340, 7503, 7119

/ 100 compat

Projected

379.7 pts

~2.7 RP (district)

Teams: 10340, 7503, 7119

Auto

53.3 14%

Teleop

229.1 61%

Endgame

90.3 24%

Strengths

· 10340 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.75 · Blue 2.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score174.4pts

Blue projected score379.7pts

Red win probability7%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 68%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -205.3
Score range: 139–415
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 597 vs event baseline 193.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

270.8Season APEX540.6

30.3Auto53.3

99.1Teleop229.1

32.9Endgame90.3

22Consistency60

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	61
teleop	68	328
endgame	57	48
foul	0	5
total	155	442

Result

Final score

155 – 442

Prediction correct · off by 40.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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