Qualification · Qualification 38
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
77.69 – 154.05
28%72%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
28 – 168
Prediction correct · off by 31.8 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 170.8 ±15.8
Season APEX 53.3Event APEX 32.21Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 37.1Event APEX 40.91Rank 28Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 80.4Event APEX 4.57Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 535.3 ±10.7
Season APEX 271.3Event APEX 31.88Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 22.1Event APEX -10.46Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 241.9Event APEX 132.63Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 4717, 7091, 8816
30
/ 100 compatProjected
77.7 pts
~1.2 RP (district)
Teams: 4717, 7091, 8816
Auto
22.2 29%
Teleop
51.8 68%
Endgame
2.1 3%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 56%
Supercharged: 6%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 8749, 7121, 3005
50
/ 100 compatProjected
154 pts
~2.1 RP (district)
Teams: 8749, 7121, 3005
Auto
27.3 18%
Teleop
68.6 45%
Endgame
57.8 38%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 56%
Supercharged: 6%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.19 · Blue 2.13
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score77.7pts
Blue projected score154pts
Red win probability28%
Event bonus sample154alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 56%, blue 64%
Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 4%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -76.4
- Score range
- 43–189
- Upset likelihood
- 28%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
170.8Season APEX535.3
22.2Auto27.3
51.8Teleop68.6
2.1Endgame57.8
34Consistency23
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 12 | 34 |
| teleop | 8 | 78 |
| endgame | 8 | 56 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 28 | 168 |
Result
Final score
28 – 168
Prediction correct · off by 31.8 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
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