Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

176.33 – 77.93

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

148 – 55

Prediction correct · off by 25.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 361.6 ±11.2

7091KnightOwls

Season APEX 37.1Event APEX 50.08Rank 28Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1296Full Metal Jackets

Season APEX 262.7Event APEX 99.55Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5411RoboTalons

Season APEX 61.8Event APEX 26.7Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 178.6 ±14.4

8408Kiss Kats

Season APEX 75.5Event APEX 37.46Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

5431Titan Robotics

Season APEX 50.7Event APEX 20.38Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6526Cyber Rangers

Season APEX 52.4Event APEX 20.09Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7091, 1296, 5411

/ 100 compat

Projected

176.3 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 7091, 1296, 5411

Auto

29.4 17%

Teleop

132.9 79%

Endgame

5.8 3%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8408, 5431, 6526

/ 100 compat

Projected

77.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 8408, 5431, 6526

Auto

1.5 2%

Teleop

44.7 57%

Endgame

32.1 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.18 · Blue 1.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score176.3pts

Blue projected score77.9pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 98.4
Score range: 44–210
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 203 vs event baseline 187.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

361.6Season APEX178.6

29.4Auto1.5

132.9Teleop44.7

5.8Endgame32.1

29Consistency68

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	52	18
teleop	79	35
endgame	17	2
foul	0	0
total	148	55

Result

Final score

148 – 55

Prediction correct · off by 25.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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