Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

325.79 – 90.39

95%5%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

190 – 50

Prediction correct · off by 88.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 562.8 ±9.9

9105TechnoTalons

Season APEX 36.3Event APEX 7.46Rank 30Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10340ITKAN Girls

A+

Season APEX 299.7Event APEX 233.35Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8858Beast from the East

Season APEX 226.8Event APEX 84.98Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 246.2 ±14.4

8816Coyotronics

Season APEX 80.4Event APEX 17.96Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

5411RoboTalons

Season APEX 61.8Event APEX 8.87Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1745The P-51 Mustangs

Season APEX 104Event APEX 63.56Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9105, 10340, 8858

/ 100 compat

Projected

325.8 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 9105, 10340, 8858

Auto

56.4 18%

Teleop

199.0 62%

Endgame

66.3 21%

Strengths

· 10340 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8816, 5411, 1745

/ 100 compat

Projected

90.4 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 8816, 5411, 1745

Auto

16.1 19%

Teleop

43.3 51%

Endgame

25.9 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.55 · Blue 0.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score325.8pts

Blue projected score90.4pts

Red win probability95%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 235.4
Score range: 52–364
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 240 vs event baseline 211.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

562.8Season APEX246.2

56.4Auto16.1

199Teleop43.3

66.3Endgame25.9

39Consistency2

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	55	12
teleop	101	38
endgame	34	0
foul	0	0
total	190	50

Result

Final score

190 – 50

Prediction correct · off by 88.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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