Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

337.31 – 209.3

83%17%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

585 – 287

Prediction correct · off by 162.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 748.5 ±9.9

10340ITKAN Girls

A+

Season APEX 299.7Event APEX 146.68Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9128ITKAN Robotics

Season APEX 344.8Event APEX 139.21Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1745The P-51 Mustangs

Season APEX 104Event APEX 51.42Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 310.8 ±11.7

4641TALON Inc.

Season APEX 61.8Event APEX 32.2Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6171⚛ Chain Reaction ⚛

Season APEX 38Event APEX 43.49Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2582PantherBots

Season APEX 211Event APEX 133.61Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10340, 9128, 1745

/ 100 compat

Projected

337.3 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 10340, 9128, 1745

Auto

76.6 23%

Teleop

198.5 60%

Endgame

55.1 17%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4641, 6171, 2582

/ 100 compat

Projected

209.3 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 4641, 6171, 2582

Auto

33.8 16%

Teleop

114.5 54%

Endgame

64.8 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.49 · Blue 1.06

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score337.3pts

Blue projected score209.3pts

Red win probability83%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 128
Score range: 176–370
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 872 vs event baseline 182.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

748.5Season APEX310.8

76.6Auto33.8

198.5Teleop114.5

55.1Endgame64.8

81Consistency23

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	127	44
teleop	375	154
endgame	78	74
foul	5	15
total	585	287

Result

Final score

585 – 287

Prediction correct · off by 162.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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