Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

229.05 – 55.35

90%10%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

223 – 30

Prediction correct · off by 15.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 436.2 ±10.5

9492LadyTalons

Season APEX 57.8Event APEX 48.09Rank 21Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7119Sunset RoboBison

Season APEX 115.7Event APEX 65.54Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1296Full Metal Jackets

Season APEX 262.7Event APEX 115.42Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 136.8 ±12.7

6171⚛ Chain Reaction ⚛

Season APEX 38Event APEX 52.08Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5790Proto-Titans

Season APEX 62.5Event APEX -10.33Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9105TechnoTalons

Season APEX 36.3Event APEX 13.6Rank 30Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9492, 7119, 1296

/ 100 compat

Projected

229.1 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 9492, 7119, 1296

Auto

40.6 19%

Teleop

135.4 63%

Endgame

38.4 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6171, 5790, 9105

/ 100 compat

Projected

55.4 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 6171, 5790, 9105

Auto

35.0 57%

Teleop

15.7 26%

Endgame

10.5 17%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.46 · Blue 0.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score229.1pts

Blue projected score55.4pts

Red win probability90%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 173.7
Score range: 22–262
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 253 vs event baseline 185.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

436.2Season APEX136.8

40.6Auto35

135.4Teleop15.7

38.4Endgame10.5

59Consistency114

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	53	13
teleop	125	8
endgame	25	9
foul	20	0
total	223	30

Result

Final score

223 – 30

Prediction correct · off by 15.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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