Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

241.72 – 235.48

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

300 – 315

Prediction missed · off by 68.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 541.8 ±9.9

2582PantherBots

Season APEX 211Event APEX 115.24Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1745The P-51 Mustangs

Season APEX 104Event APEX 43.68Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8858Beast from the East

Season APEX 226.8Event APEX 82.8Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 553.4 ±11.2

7506WILDCARDS

Season APEX 151.2Event APEX 101.22Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3282Dallas Robo Tigers

Season APEX 57.4Event APEX 11.84Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9128ITKAN Robotics

Season APEX 344.8Event APEX 122.42Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2582, 1745, 8858

/ 100 compat

Projected

241.7 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 2582, 1745, 8858

Auto

41.5 17%

Teleop

133.1 55%

Endgame

66.4 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7506, 3282, 9128

/ 100 compat

Projected

235.5 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 7506, 3282, 9128

Auto

58.2 25%

Teleop

136.0 59%

Endgame

35.7 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.78 · Blue 1.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score241.7pts

Blue projected score235.5pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 6.2
Score range: 203–274
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 615 vs event baseline 179.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

541.8Season APEX553.4

41.5Auto58.2

133.1Teleop136

66.4Endgame35.7

87Consistency131

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	79
teleop	166	164
endgame	104	72
foul	0	0
total	300	315

Result

Final score

300 – 315

Prediction missed · off by 68.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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