Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

238.53 – 205.88

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

293 – 361

Prediction missed · off by 104.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 439.7 ±11.2

7091KnightOwls

Season APEX 37.1Event APEX 68.18Rank 28Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9492LadyTalons

Season APEX 57.8Event APEX 56.69Rank 21Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9128ITKAN Robotics

Season APEX 344.8Event APEX 113.66Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 593.9 ±10.7

1296Full Metal Jackets

Season APEX 262.7Event APEX 97.42Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10340ITKAN Girls

A+

Season APEX 299.7Event APEX 60Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7125Tigerbotics

Season APEX 31.5Event APEX 48.46Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7091, 9492, 9128

/ 100 compat

Projected

238.5 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 7091, 9492, 9128

Auto

51.8 22%

Teleop

141.7 61%

Endgame

38.1 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1296, 10340, 7125

/ 100 compat

Projected

205.9 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 1296, 10340, 7125

Auto

42.8 21%

Teleop

106.5 53%

Endgame

51.0 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.87 · Blue 1.48

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score238.5pts

Blue projected score205.9pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 32.7
Score range: 174–271
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 654 vs event baseline 178.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

439.7Season APEX593.9

51.8Auto42.8

141.7Teleop106.5

38.1Endgame51

110Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	77	60
teleop	177	273
endgame	14	23
foul	25	5
total	293	361

Result

Final score

293 – 361

Prediction missed · off by 104.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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