Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

116.68 – 142.21

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

138 – 125

Prediction missed · off by 19.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 240.3 ±12.2

9289Vikings

Season APEX 48.5Event APEX 16.68Rank 31Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9034The Space Dolphins

Season APEX 40.6Event APEX 17.59Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7506WILDCARDS

Season APEX 151.2Event APEX 82.41Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 346 ±11.2

8858Beast from the East

Season APEX 226.8Event APEX 94.45Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5411RoboTalons

Season APEX 61.8Event APEX 22.6Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3282Dallas Robo Tigers

Season APEX 57.4Event APEX 25.16Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9289, 9034, 7506

/ 100 compat

Projected

116.7 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 9289, 9034, 7506

Auto

13.1 11%

Teleop

85.1 70%

Endgame

24.0 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8858, 5411, 3282

/ 100 compat

Projected

142.2 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 8858, 5411, 3282

Auto

43.4 31%

Teleop

69.2 50%

Endgame

25.8 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.4 · Blue 1.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score116.7pts

Blue projected score142.2pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -25.5
Score range: 86–173
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 263 vs event baseline 172.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

240.3Season APEX346

13.1Auto43.4

85.1Teleop69.2

24Endgame25.8

68Consistency76

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	24
teleop	84	59
endgame	28	42
foul	0	0
total	138	125

Result

Final score

138 – 125

Prediction missed · off by 19.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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