Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

94.18 – 127.77

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

85 – 110

Prediction correct · off by 13.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 209 ±11.6

6526Cyber Rangers

Season APEX 52.4Event APEX 58.13Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1745The P-51 Mustangs

Season APEX 104Event APEX 35.72Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5682Equus Engineering

Season APEX 52.6Event APEX 0.33Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 614.4 ±13.1

8749Farmersville Robotics

Season APEX 271.3Event APEX 24.35Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8816Coyotronics

Season APEX 80.4Event APEX -9Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

1296Full Metal Jackets

Season APEX 262.7Event APEX 112.42Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6526, 1745, 5682

/ 100 compat

Projected

94.2 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 6526, 1745, 5682

Auto

9.0 9%

Teleop

74.4 77%

Endgame

13.2 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8749, 8816, 1296

/ 100 compat

Projected

127.8 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 8749, 8816, 1296

Auto

22.6 17%

Teleop

92.2 71%

Endgame

15.1 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.4 · Blue 1.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score94.2pts

Blue projected score127.8pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -33.6
Score range: 62–160
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 195 vs event baseline 177.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

209Season APEX614.4

9Auto22.6

74.4Teleop92.2

13.2Endgame15.1

106Consistency17

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	36
teleop	44	58
endgame	17	16
foul	0	0
total	85	110

Result

Final score

85 – 110

Prediction correct · off by 13.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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