Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

200.88 – 205.65

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

242 – 283

Prediction correct · off by 59.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 577.9 ±10.7

7121Keller Fusion Robotics

Season APEX 22.1Event APEX 1.78Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9128ITKAN Robotics

Season APEX 344.8Event APEX 122.79Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2582PantherBots

Season APEX 211Event APEX 76.31Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 525.9 ±9.9

4641TALON Inc.

Season APEX 61.8Event APEX 27.47Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3005RoboChargers

Season APEX 241.9Event APEX 72.94Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2848Rangers

Season APEX 222.2Event APEX 105.24Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7121, 9128, 2582

/ 100 compat

Projected

200.9 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 7121, 9128, 2582

Auto

40.6 20%

Teleop

120.6 60%

Endgame

38.6 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4641, 3005, 2848

/ 100 compat

Projected

205.7 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4641, 3005, 2848

Auto

20.9 10%

Teleop

122.7 60%

Endgame

61.9 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.72 · Blue 1.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score200.9pts

Blue projected score205.7pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -4.8
Score range: 170–237
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 525 vs event baseline 170.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

577.9Season APEX525.9

40.6Auto20.9

120.6Teleop122.7

38.6Endgame61.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	71	57
teleop	108	143
endgame	53	83
foul	10	0
total	242	283

Result

Final score

242 – 283

Prediction correct · off by 59.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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