Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

150.29 – 196.55

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

114 – 83

Prediction missed · off by 74.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 209.7 ±12.7

7125Tigerbotics

Season APEX 31.5Event APEX 44.95Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7119Sunset RoboBison

Season APEX 115.7Event APEX 78Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5790Proto-Titans

Season APEX 62.5Event APEX 27.34Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 262.5 ±13.9

7503Radicubs

Season APEX 125.2Event APEX 27.99Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8408Kiss Kats

Season APEX 75.5Event APEX 113.21Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

5411RoboTalons

Season APEX 61.8Event APEX 55.35Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7125, 7119, 5790

/ 100 compat

Projected

150.3 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 7125, 7119, 5790

Auto

16.9 11%

Teleop

89.4 60%

Endgame

42.6 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7503, 8408, 5411

/ 100 compat

Projected

196.5 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 7503, 8408, 5411

Auto

30.2 15%

Teleop

116.9 59%

Endgame

50.6 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.33 · Blue 1.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score150.3pts

Blue projected score196.5pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -46.3
Score range: 118–229
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 197 vs event baseline 176.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

209.7Season APEX262.5

16.9Auto30.2

89.4Teleop116.9

42.6Endgame50.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	21
teleop	35	18
endgame	30	39
foul	5	5
total	114	83

Result

Final score

114 – 83

Prediction missed · off by 74.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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