Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

293.03 – 80.94

93%7%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

186 – 29

Prediction correct · off by 79.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 391 ±12.4

4717Westerner Robotics

Season APEX 53.3Event APEX 19.89Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6171⚛ Chain Reaction ⚛

Season APEX 38Event APEX 42.02Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10340ITKAN Girls

A+

Season APEX 299.7Event APEX 231.12Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 143 ±13.3

3282Dallas Robo Tigers

Season APEX 57.4Event APEX 22.23Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7091KnightOwls

Season APEX 37.1Event APEX 26.72Rank 28Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9289Vikings

Season APEX 48.5Event APEX 31.99Rank 31Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4717, 6171, 10340

/ 100 compat

Projected

293 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 4717, 6171, 10340

Auto

54.6 19%

Teleop

193.6 67%

Endgame

42.1 15%

Strengths

· 10340 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3282, 7091, 9289

/ 100 compat

Projected

80.9 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 3282, 7091, 9289

Auto

21.0 27%

Teleop

34.0 43%

Endgame

24.2 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.62 · Blue 0.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score293pts

Blue projected score80.9pts

Red win probability93%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 212.1
Score range: 46–328
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 215 vs event baseline 195.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

391Season APEX143

54.6Auto21

193.6Teleop34

42.1Endgame24.2

4Consistency41

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	18
teleop	110	8
endgame	55	3
foul	0	0
total	186	29

Result

Final score

186 – 29

Prediction correct · off by 79.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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