Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

133.97 – 112.32

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

139 – 98

Prediction correct · off by 9.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 240.6 ±11

10385Cycle-Breakers

Season APEX 109.3Event APEX 56.29Rank 5Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4332RoboCats

Season APEX 45.3Event APEX 28.5Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2158the ausTIN CANs

Season APEX 86Event APEX 49.18Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 189.6 ±11.6

4219RED!

Season APEX 63.6Event APEX 47.6Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8088Bionic Panthers

Season APEX 84.9Event APEX 44.21Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2950Devastators

Season APEX 41.1Event APEX 20.51Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10385, 4332, 2158

/ 100 compat

Projected

134 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 10385, 4332, 2158

Auto

24.4 18%

Teleop

56.2 43%

Endgame

51.3 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4219, 8088, 2950

/ 100 compat

Projected

112.3 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 4219, 8088, 2950

Auto

25.4 24%

Teleop

53.9 50%

Endgame

28.2 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.52 · Blue 1.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score134pts

Blue projected score112.3pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 21.7
Score range: 91–155
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 237 vs event baseline 116.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

240.6Season APEX189.6

24.4Auto25.4

56.2Teleop53.9

51.3Endgame28.2

61Consistency7

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	30
teleop	63	32
endgame	14	36
foul	30	0
total	139	98

Result

Final score

139 – 98

Prediction correct · off by 9.7 pts

Match videos

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