Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

155.52 – 150.83

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

226 – 149

Prediction correct · off by 36.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 242.7 ±10.4

2687Team Apprentice

Season APEX 64.2Event APEX 56.19Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9444Perseverance

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 8.68Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4639The RoboSpartans

Season APEX 112Event APEX 90.65Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 250.1 ±10.4

11169ERA Delta

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 29.54Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2689Team Alpha

Season APEX 106Event APEX 60.77Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6357The Spring Konstant

Season APEX 84.8Event APEX 60.52Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2687, 9444, 4639

/ 100 compat

Projected

155.5 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 2687, 9444, 4639

Auto

40.6 27%

Teleop

80.0 53%

Endgame

31.0 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11169, 2689, 6357

/ 100 compat

Projected

150.8 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 11169, 2689, 6357

Auto

42.7 30%

Teleop

64.2 46%

Endgame

33.5 24%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.43 · Blue 1.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score155.5pts

Blue projected score150.8pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 4.7
Score range: 130–177
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 375 vs event baseline 115.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

242.7Season APEX250.1

40.6Auto42.7

80Teleop64.2

31Endgame33.5

0Consistency8

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	79	60
teleop	112	39
endgame	35	50
foul	0	0
total	226	149

Result

Final score

226 – 149

Prediction correct · off by 36.2 pts

Match videos

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