Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

130.27 – 114.93

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

240 – 135

Prediction correct · off by 64.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 250.1 ±10.4

11169ERA Delta

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 21.62Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2689Team Alpha

Season APEX 106Event APEX 54.66Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6357The Spring Konstant

Season APEX 84.8Event APEX 53.99Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 185 ±12.2

4219RED!

Season APEX 63.6Event APEX 46.52Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8088Bionic Panthers

Season APEX 84.9Event APEX 43.41Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9478Robo-Colts HSISL

Season APEX 36.5Event APEX 25Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11169, 2689, 6357

/ 100 compat

Projected

130.3 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 11169, 2689, 6357

Auto

38.2 30%

Teleop

57.5 46%

Endgame

30.6 24%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4219, 8088, 9478

/ 100 compat

Projected

114.9 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 4219, 8088, 9478

Auto

22.3 21%

Teleop

56.1 52%

Endgame

29.2 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.41 · Blue 1.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score130.3pts

Blue projected score114.9pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 15.3
Score range: 95–150
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 375 vs event baseline 112.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

250.1Season APEX185

38.2Auto22.3

57.5Teleop56.1

30.6Endgame29.2

49Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	63	19
teleop	96	68
endgame	46	48
foul	35	0
total	240	135

Result

Final score

240 – 135

Prediction correct · off by 64.9 pts

Match videos

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