Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

143.4 – 91.97

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

224 – 53

Prediction correct · off by 59.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 242.7 ±10.4

2687Team Apprentice

Season APEX 64.2Event APEX 52.65Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9444Perseverance

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 4.62Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4639The RoboSpartans

Season APEX 112Event APEX 86.13Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 167.7 ±12.2

9137Bionic Vipers

Season APEX 38.7Event APEX 22.54Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8507Jagwire Robotics

Season APEX 77.6Event APEX 41.77Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4328Furious Falcons

Season APEX 51.4Event APEX 27.66Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2687, 9444, 4639

/ 100 compat

Projected

143.4 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 2687, 9444, 4639

Auto

41.0 30%

Teleop

72.2 52%

Endgame

25.3 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9137, 8507, 4328

/ 100 compat

Projected

92 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 9137, 8507, 4328

Auto

24.5 28%

Teleop

41.0 47%

Endgame

21.3 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.71 · Blue 1.02

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score143.4pts

Blue projected score92pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 51.4
Score range: 72–163
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 277 vs event baseline 112.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

242.7Season APEX167.7

41Auto24.5

72.2Teleop41

25.3Endgame21.3

10Consistency33

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	22
teleop	123	18
endgame	58	13
foul	0	0
total	224	53

Result

Final score

224 – 53

Prediction correct · off by 59.8 pts

Match videos

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