Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

118.88 – 87.71

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

171 – 57

Prediction correct · off by 41.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 240.6 ±11

10385Cycle-Breakers

Season APEX 109.3Event APEX 51.78Rank 5Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4332RoboCats

Season APEX 45.3Event APEX 22.87Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2158the ausTIN CANs

Season APEX 86Event APEX 44.23Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 173 ±12.8

9311Warhorse Robotics

Season APEX 50.6Event APEX 26.44Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11224Azreal

Season APEX 41.9Event APEX 21.96Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8114Rocketeers

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 39.31Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10385, 4332, 2158

/ 100 compat

Projected

118.9 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 10385, 4332, 2158

Auto

22.0 19%

Teleop

46.5 39%

Endgame

50.0 42%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9311, 11224, 8114

/ 100 compat

Projected

87.7 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 9311, 11224, 8114

Auto

13.0 16%

Teleop

42.4 51%

Endgame

27.3 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.58 · Blue 1.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score118.9pts

Blue projected score87.7pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 31.2
Score range: 68–139
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 228 vs event baseline 112.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

240.6Season APEX173

22Auto13

46.5Teleop42.4

50Endgame27.3

59Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	24
teleop	77	19
endgame	50	14
foul	10	0
total	171	57

Result

Final score

171 – 57

Prediction correct · off by 41.4 pts

Match videos

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