Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
279.81 – 77.06
93%7%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
289 – 115
Prediction correct · off by 23.6 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 593.3 ±9.3
Season APEX 304.8Event APEX 162.6Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 39Event APEX 9.94Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 107.27Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 191 ±10.4
Season APEX 78.3Event APEX 27.02Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 54.3Event APEX 30.16Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 58.4Event APEX 19.88Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 2468, 5503, 3035
84
/ 100 compatProjected
279.8 pts
~2.4 RP (district)
Teams: 2468, 5503, 3035
Auto
40.2 15%
Teleop
154.4 58%
Endgame
73.1 27%
Strengths
- · 2468 anchors offense
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 47%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 10913, 9577, 10032
51
/ 100 compatProjected
77.1 pts
~0.5 RP (district)
Teams: 10913, 9577, 10032
Auto
21.9 32%
Teleop
35.0 51%
Endgame
11.6 17%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 47%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.36 · Blue 0.47
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score279.8pts
Blue projected score77.1pts
Red win probability93%
Event bonus sample154alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 47%, blue 28%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 202.8
- Score range
- 57–300
- Upset likelihood
- 7%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
593.3Season APEX191
40.2Auto21.9
154.4Teleop35
73.1Endgame11.6
80Consistency46
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 42 | 26 |
| teleop | 161 | 44 |
| endgame | 86 | 45 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 289 | 115 |
Result
Final score
289 – 115
Prediction correct · off by 23.6 pts
Match videos
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