Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

168.46 – 157.22

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

258 – 142

Prediction correct · off by 52.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 242.7 ±10.4

9444Perseverance

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 12.68Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2687Team Apprentice

Season APEX 64.2Event APEX 60.07Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4639The RoboSpartans

Season APEX 112Event APEX 95.71Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 250.1 ±10.4

11169ERA Delta

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 31.99Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2689Team Alpha

Season APEX 106Event APEX 62.28Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6357The Spring Konstant

Season APEX 84.8Event APEX 62.95Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9444, 2687, 4639

/ 100 compat

Projected

168.5 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 9444, 2687, 4639

Auto

45.6 28%

Teleop

83.1 50%

Endgame

36.2 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11169, 2689, 6357

/ 100 compat

Projected

157.2 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 11169, 2689, 6357

Auto

49.6 33%

Teleop

64.5 43%

Endgame

35.0 23%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.47 · Blue 1.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score168.5pts

Blue projected score157.2pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 11.2
Score range: 136–189
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 400 vs event baseline 119.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

242.7Season APEX250.1

45.6Auto49.6

83.1Teleop64.5

36.2Endgame35

0Consistency9

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	38
teleop	116	74
endgame	108	30
foul	5	0
total	258	142

Result

Final score

258 – 142

Prediction correct · off by 52.4 pts

Match videos

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