Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

157.29 – 133.54

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

155 – 95

Prediction correct · off by 20.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 250.1 ±10.4

11169ERA Delta

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 32.01Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2689Team Alpha

Season APEX 106Event APEX 62.37Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6357The Spring Konstant

Season APEX 84.8Event APEX 62.91Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 240.6 ±11

4332RoboCats

Season APEX 45.3Event APEX 28.26Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2158the ausTIN CANs

Season APEX 86Event APEX 49.01Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10385Cycle-Breakers

Season APEX 109.3Event APEX 56.27Rank 5Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11169, 2689, 6357

/ 100 compat

Projected

157.3 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 11169, 2689, 6357

Auto

48.3 33%

Teleop

62.9 43%

Endgame

36.7 25%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4332, 2158, 10385

/ 100 compat

Projected

133.5 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 4332, 2158, 10385

Auto

25.3 20%

Teleop

56.8 45%

Endgame

45.4 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.47 · Blue 1.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score157.3pts

Blue projected score133.5pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 23.8
Score range: 113–178
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 250 vs event baseline 119.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

250.1Season APEX240.6

48.3Auto25.3

62.9Teleop56.8

36.7Endgame45.4

3Consistency68

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	58	21
teleop	75	47
endgame	22	27
foul	0	0
total	155	95

Result

Final score

155 – 95

Prediction correct · off by 20.4 pts

Match videos

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