Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

288.99 – 166.65

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

383 – 183

Prediction correct · off by 55.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 593.3 ±9.3

5503Smithville Tiger Trons

Season APEX 39Event APEX 11.62Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2468Team Appreciate

A+

Season APEX 304.8Event APEX 166.86Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3035Droid Rage

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 110.51Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 242.7 ±10.4

2687Team Apprentice

Season APEX 64.2Event APEX 59.5Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9444Perseverance

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 12.36Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4639The RoboSpartans

Season APEX 112Event APEX 94.79Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5503, 2468, 3035

/ 100 compat

Projected

289 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5503, 2468, 3035

Auto

41.9 15%

Teleop

161.8 58%

Endgame

77.3 28%

Strengths

· 2468 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2687, 9444, 4639

/ 100 compat

Projected

166.7 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 2687, 9444, 4639

Auto

46.3 28%

Teleop

85.6 52%

Endgame

31.4 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.15 · Blue 0.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score289pts

Blue projected score166.7pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 122.3
Score range: 146–310
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 566 vs event baseline 117.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

593.3Season APEX242.7

41.9Auto46.3

161.8Teleop85.6

77.3Endgame31.4

22Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	41
teleop	230	71
endgame	111	66
foul	0	5
total	383	183

Result

Final score

383 – 183

Prediction correct · off by 55.2 pts

Match videos

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