Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

149.86 – 86.74

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

204 – 73

Prediction correct · off by 33.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 250.1 ±10.4

11169ERA Delta

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 29Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2689Team Alpha

Season APEX 106Event APEX 60.53Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6357The Spring Konstant

Season APEX 84.8Event APEX 60.33Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 191 ±10.4

10913Robot Wranglers

Season APEX 78.3Event APEX 30.33Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9577Recoil

Season APEX 54.3Event APEX 32.89Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10032Singularity

Season APEX 58.4Event APEX 23.52Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11169, 2689, 6357

/ 100 compat

Projected

149.9 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 11169, 2689, 6357

Auto

45.3 32%

Teleop

59.6 42%

Endgame

36.6 26%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10913, 9577, 10032

/ 100 compat

Projected

86.7 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 10913, 9577, 10032

Auto

23.0 28%

Teleop

42.1 52%

Endgame

16.3 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.69 · Blue 0.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score149.9pts

Blue projected score86.7pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 63.1
Score range: 66–171
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 277 vs event baseline 116.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

250.1Season APEX191

45.3Auto23

59.6Teleop42.1

36.6Endgame16.3

8Consistency74

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	66	23
teleop	82	14
endgame	41	36
foul	15	0
total	204	73

Result

Final score

204 – 73

Prediction correct · off by 33.9 pts

Match videos

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