Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

24.56 – 69.45

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

77 – 25

Prediction missed · off by 48.4 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 168.5 ±12.2

9577Recoil

Season APEX 54.3Event APEX -1.33Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9311Warhorse Robotics

Season APEX 50.6Event APEX 5.79Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4219RED!

Season APEX 63.6Event APEX 20.1Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 128.4 ±12.8

11169ERA Delta

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 16.29Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7138Wing It

Season APEX 29.8Event APEX 20.86Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4364Metal Jackets

Season APEX 39.3Event APEX 32.3Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9577, 9311, 4219

/ 100 compat

Projected

24.6 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 9577, 9311, 4219

Auto

4.1 18%

Teleop

6.8 29%

Endgame

12.5 53%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11169, 7138, 4364

/ 100 compat

Projected

69.4 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 11169, 7138, 4364

Auto

20.4 32%

Teleop

30.2 47%

Endgame

13.5 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.12 · Blue 1.52

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score24.6pts

Blue projected score69.4pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 21%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -44.9
Score range: 6–88
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 102 vs event baseline 106.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

168.5Season APEX128.4

4.1Auto20.4

6.8Teleop30.2

12.5Endgame13.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	18
teleop	41	7
endgame	28	0
foul	0	0
total	77	25

Result

Final score

77 – 25

Prediction missed · off by 48.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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