Qualification · Qualification 62

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

53.57 – 65.7

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

34 – 90

Prediction correct · off by 21.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 109.2 ±12.2

4597SABERBOTS

Season APEX 30.9Event APEX 22.32Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5503Smithville Tiger Trons

Season APEX 39Event APEX 11.41Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4364Metal Jackets

Season APEX 39.3Event APEX 19.84Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 148.6 ±12.8

9311Warhorse Robotics

Season APEX 50.6Event APEX 25.02Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9137Bionic Vipers

Season APEX 38.7Event APEX 20.98Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11169ERA Delta

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 19.7Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4597, 5503, 4364

/ 100 compat

Projected

53.6 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 4597, 5503, 4364

Auto

16.8 35%

Teleop

21.1 44%

Endgame

10.0 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9311, 9137, 11169

/ 100 compat

Projected

65.7 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 9311, 9137, 11169

Auto

14.7 24%

Teleop

24.1 40%

Endgame

21.8 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.23 · Blue 1.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score53.6pts

Blue projected score65.7pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 26%, blue 24%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -12.1
Score range: 34–86
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 124 vs event baseline 111.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

109.2Season APEX148.6

16.8Auto14.7

21.1Teleop24.1

10Endgame21.8

25Consistency55

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	20
teleop	15	43
endgame	9	27
foul	0	0
total	34	90

Result

Final score

34 – 90

Prediction correct · off by 21.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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