Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

76.51 – 113.62

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

104 – 34

Prediction missed · off by 53.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 221.1 ±11

4332RoboCats

Season APEX 45.3Event APEX 21.44Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10385Cycle-Breakers

Season APEX 109.3Event APEX 51.5Rank 5Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9444Perseverance

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 3.57Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 160.2 ±12.2

5894CyberJags

Season APEX 19.5Event APEX 6.15Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7521ULTIMATE Robotics

Season APEX 28.7Event APEX 12.56Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4639The RoboSpartans

Season APEX 112Event APEX 94.91Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4332, 10385, 9444

/ 100 compat

Projected

76.5 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 4332, 10385, 9444

Auto

22.3 31%

Teleop

20.3 28%

Endgame

29.4 41%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5894, 7521, 4639

/ 100 compat

Projected

113.6 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5894, 7521, 4639

Auto

37.2 32%

Teleop

57.8 49%

Endgame

22.9 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.1 · Blue 1.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score76.5pts

Blue projected score113.6pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -37.1
Score range: 57–134
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 138 vs event baseline 109.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

221.1Season APEX160.2

22.3Auto37.2

20.3Teleop57.8

29.4Endgame22.9

17Consistency62

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	34
teleop	53	0
endgame	37	0
foul	0	0
total	104	34

Result

Final score

104 – 34

Prediction missed · off by 53.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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