Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

89.4 – 43.62

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

184 – 59

Prediction correct · off by 55 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 187.8 ±11.7

9137Bionic Vipers

Season APEX 38.7Event APEX 13.62Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8088Bionic Panthers

Season APEX 84.9Event APEX 31.66Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2687Team Apprentice

Season APEX 64.2Event APEX 44.12Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 123.1 ±11.7

7138Wing It

Season APEX 29.8Event APEX 1.85Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5503Smithville Tiger Trons

Season APEX 39Event APEX 11.26Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9577Recoil

Season APEX 54.3Event APEX 30.51Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9137, 8088, 2687

/ 100 compat

Projected

89.4 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 9137, 8088, 2687

Auto

19.4 24%

Teleop

44.7 56%

Endgame

15.2 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7138, 5503, 9577

/ 100 compat

Projected

43.6 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 7138, 5503, 9577

Auto

12.1 27%

Teleop

25.2 55%

Endgame

8.2 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.64 · Blue 1.02

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score89.4pts

Blue projected score43.6pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 45.8
Score range: 24–109
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 243 vs event baseline 109.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

187.8Season APEX123.1

19.4Auto12.1

44.7Teleop25.2

15.2Endgame8.2

29Consistency39

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	53	19
teleop	78	16
endgame	38	9
foul	15	15
total	184	59

Result

Final score

184 – 59

Prediction correct · off by 55 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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