Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

268.65 – 99.06

89%11%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

300 – 107

Prediction correct · off by 19.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 462.1 ±10.5

2468Team Appreciate

A+

Season APEX 304.8Event APEX 154.79Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4639The RoboSpartans

Season APEX 112Event APEX 94.57Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4332RoboCats

Season APEX 45.3Event APEX 19.29Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 185.2 ±11.6

4219RED!

Season APEX 63.6Event APEX 43.94Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8114Rocketeers

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 40.15Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2950Devastators

Season APEX 41.1Event APEX 14.97Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2468, 4639, 4332

/ 100 compat

Projected

268.7 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 2468, 4639, 4332

Auto

44.3 17%

Teleop

148.2 57%

Endgame

68.0 26%

Strengths

· 2468 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4219, 8114, 2950

/ 100 compat

Projected

99.1 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 4219, 8114, 2950

Auto

20.4 21%

Teleop

47.3 48%

Endgame

31.7 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.22 · Blue 0.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score268.7pts

Blue projected score99.1pts

Red win probability89%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 169.6
Score range: 80–288
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 407 vs event baseline 107.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

462.1Season APEX185.2

44.3Auto20.4

148.2Teleop47.3

68Endgame31.7

41Consistency1

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	72	23
teleop	129	28
endgame	79	31
foul	20	25
total	300	107

Result

Final score

300 – 107

Prediction correct · off by 19.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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