Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

85.57 – 50.72

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

106 – 94

Prediction correct · off by 31.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 194 ±11.7

7521ULTIMATE Robotics

Season APEX 28.7Event APEX 12.78Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2689Team Alpha

Season APEX 106Event APEX 53.5Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11169ERA Delta

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 19.29Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 195.4 ±11.7

9444Perseverance

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 0.16Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9311Warhorse Robotics

Season APEX 50.6Event APEX 25.16Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10913Robot Wranglers

Season APEX 78.3Event APEX 25.4Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7521, 2689, 11169

/ 100 compat

Projected

85.6 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 7521, 2689, 11169

Auto

28.4 35%

Teleop

31.7 39%

Endgame

21.7 27%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9444, 9311, 10913

/ 100 compat

Projected

50.7 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 9444, 9311, 10913

Auto

14.6 29%

Teleop

16.9 34%

Endgame

18.5 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.45 · Blue 1.11

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score85.6pts

Blue projected score50.7pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 20%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 34.8
Score range: 32–105
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 200 vs event baseline 107.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

194Season APEX195.4

28.4Auto14.6

31.7Teleop16.9

21.7Endgame18.5

78Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	18
teleop	36	17
endgame	24	29
foul	0	30
total	106	94

Result

Final score

106 – 94

Prediction correct · off by 31.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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