Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

134.03 – 100.01

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

193 – 118

Prediction correct · off by 38.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 346 ±10.5

9577Recoil

Season APEX 54.3Event APEX 27.05Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3035Droid Rage

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 101.06Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7088Somerset Robodogs

Season APEX 42.2Event APEX 5.92Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 197.2 ±12.2

4328Furious Falcons

Season APEX 51.4Event APEX 27.26Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10385Cycle-Breakers

Season APEX 109.3Event APEX 51.65Rank 5Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9478Robo-Colts HSISL

Season APEX 36.5Event APEX 21.1Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9577, 3035, 7088

/ 100 compat

Projected

134 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 9577, 3035, 7088

Auto

27.2 21%

Teleop

64.8 50%

Endgame

36.6 28%

Strengths

· 3035 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4328, 10385, 9478

/ 100 compat

Projected

100 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 4328, 10385, 9478

Auto

32.9 33%

Teleop

47.1 48%

Endgame

18.9 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.6 · Blue 1.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score134pts

Blue projected score100pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 34
Score range: 81–153
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 311 vs event baseline 106.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

346Season APEX197.2

27.2Auto32.9

64.8Teleop47.1

36.6Endgame18.9

135Consistency18

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	25
teleop	117	58
endgame	34	30
foul	0	5
total	193	118

Result

Final score

193 – 118

Prediction correct · off by 38.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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