Qualification · Qualification 52

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

106.86 – 53.01

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

199 – 51

Prediction correct · off by 47.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 211.5 ±11

2950Devastators

Season APEX 41.1Event APEX 7.68Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4639The RoboSpartans

Season APEX 112Event APEX 86.73Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10032Singularity

Season APEX 58.4Event APEX 12.45Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 100.7 ±13.3

5894CyberJags

Season APEX 19.5Event APEX 8.86Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4364Metal Jackets

Season APEX 39.3Event APEX 23.79Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11224Azreal

Season APEX 41.9Event APEX 20.36Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2950, 4639, 10032

/ 100 compat

Projected

106.9 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 2950, 4639, 10032

Auto

35.6 34%

Teleop

53.2 50%

Endgame

16.6 16%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5894, 4364, 11224

/ 100 compat

Projected

53 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5894, 4364, 11224

Auto

22.9 45%

Teleop

22.5 44%

Endgame

5.5 11%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.66 · Blue 1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score106.9pts

Blue projected score53pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 53.9
Score range: 34–126
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 250 vs event baseline 106.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

211.5Season APEX100.7

35.6Auto22.9

53.2Teleop22.5

16.6Endgame5.5

55Consistency16

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	11
teleop	125	20
endgame	29	20
foul	0	0
total	199	51

Result

Final score

199 – 51

Prediction correct · off by 47.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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