Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

28.08 – 50.03

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

111 – 110

Prediction missed · off by 71.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 180.1 ±10.4

11169ERA Delta

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 10.3Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9577Recoil

Season APEX 54.3Event APEX 22.86Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9444Perseverance

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX -5.08Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 167.2 ±11

7088Somerset Robodogs

Season APEX 42.2Event APEX 2.16Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2158the ausTIN CANs

Season APEX 86Event APEX 38.78Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5503Smithville Tiger Trons

Season APEX 39Event APEX 9.09Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11169, 9577, 9444

/ 100 compat

Projected

28.1 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 11169, 9577, 9444

Auto

12.7 64%

Teleop

-0.1 0%

Endgame

7.3 37%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7088, 2158, 5503

/ 100 compat

Projected

50 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 7088, 2158, 5503

Auto

10.0 19%

Teleop

11.8 23%

Endgame

29.9 58%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.14 · Blue 1.46

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score28.1pts

Blue projected score50pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 23%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -22
Score range: 9–69
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 221 vs event baseline 105.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

180.1Season APEX167.2

12.7Auto10

-0.1Teleop11.8

7.3Endgame29.9

82Consistency107

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	16
teleop	55	52
endgame	39	42
foul	0	0
total	111	110

Result

Final score

111 – 110

Prediction missed · off by 71.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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